The Market, Past and Present

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“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” – attr. to Alexander Pope

When I was young, I was rankled by this expression. I wanted to show that angels were brave- that this angel, anyway, could think things out quickly and boldly act.

As I gained a little experience, I realized that there are as many different types of angels as there are fools, and quite possibly the only distinguishing characteristic between the two has to do with society’s general definition of success. The application of the maxim above, likely, has a lot to do with hindsight- if you rush into a decision and make a lot of money, who is going to call you a fool?

We pulled up the stats on real estate resale for or particular market area. This was what came up:

This year past two months [all sales (multi, single family and condo)] there were 523 sales with an average time on market of 152 days. Last year, for the same two month period there were 560 sales with an average of 162 DOM. Significant drop, but not that startling.

Here’s the shock: this year for that two month period the average home sale was $237,500. Last year it was $285,533. What does this mean? The angels selling their homes- and the angels selling them- look a lot less successful than did those doing the same thing last year- or 4 years ago.

What does this mean? I don’t know. But I do feel like this country is holding its collective breath waiting to see what will happen next, and I for one am becoming dizzy from lack of oxygen.

I was speaking with John Corey, a friend of mine who is a genius with real estate investing, among other things. There is a human tendency to over-correct in response to circumstance. I am going to try to keep myself from relying on the memory of what has happened in the past to entirely make my decisions for today. If something doesn’t work- I won’t try doing more or less of the same thing. I will do something different. I will innovate. As Einstein said, “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

History is best used, perhaps, for distinguishing angels from fools.

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